| Empresa |
Nemotécnico |
Corredora |
Recomendación Anterior |
Recomendación Actual |
Precio objetivo |
Fecha |
| Empresas COPEC S.A. |
COPEC |
Goldman Sachs |
Vender |
Vender |
6.285 » 6.616 |
20/02/2026 |
| Abstracto |
Estimate Changes
We update our model ahead of 4Q25 and mark to market our FX and commodities prices. We revise our 2025/26/27E EBITDA by -1%/+1%/-8% mainly on the back of our new pulp price forecast (2027 at $550/t vs. $600/t prior) partially offset by stronger earnings from the fuel’s business. We also update our WACC to 8.6% vs. 9.7% previously due to updated risk-free, MRP and lower Chile and Brazil CDS. All in, we maintain our Sell-rating, but increase our PT to ChP$6,616 (vs. ChP$6,285 prior).
We are Sell-rated on COPEC a 12-month price target of ChP$6,616/sh (vs ChP$6,285 prior) based on our valuation methodology of 50% EV/EBITDA multiple and 50% DCF methodology. For the multiple valuation, we use the average of our 2026 and 2027 fair values on a multiple of 6.5x, in line with the 5yr historical avg. For the DCF methodology, we use a WACC of 8.6% (vs 9.7% prior on updated risk-free, MRP and lower Chile and Brazil CDS, terminal growth rate 2.5%, Beta 1.10 — both unchanged). Upside risks: (1) Delays in project start-ups and worse-than-expected supply disruptions could boost pulp prices above GS forecasts, consequently improving the company’s profitability and FCF generation; (2) Resolution of tariff uncertainty could boost investor sentiment and demand, leading to pulp restocking and eventually higher prices; (3) Appreciation of the USD against the CLP and the BRL could lead to higher operating leverage, as the company’s revenues are more USD exposed than its costs; (4) Our estimates for capex and cost/t relating to Sucuriú could prove overly conservative, with the project enjoying better economics and consequently higher profitability; and (5) While investors have historically priced in projects only 6-12m before start-up, they could do so earlier for Sucuriú, which would pose a key upside risk (given the size of the project and how transformational it could be).
|
|